Mixed Division at Windmill Windup 2012

Introduction to Power Rankings

Here are the charts representing the computed strengths of the teams in the mixed division of Windmill Windup 2012. You should probably read this post for an in-depth explanation of the data presented here.

In all charts, you can click on a series in the legend on the right to toggle its visibility. Clicking on points in the graph shows detailed information about that particular team and how it performed at this point. Hovering over a round displays a tooltip with all teams that are currently visible, their scores and respective ranking. Dragging inside the chart lets you zoom in to focus on fewer rounds.

Most crucial for the Swissdraw format at Windmill Windup 2012 is the ranking of the teams after round 5, after which the top 8 teams advance to a full playoff bracket whereas the rest of the teams continue with three more rounds of Swissdraw format. The reasoning behind this choice of format is that brackets provide the fairest way to establish a winner, whereas the rest of the teams play more "for fun" as they cannot win the tournament anymore. Therefore, continuing the Swissdraw ensures that they do not replay a previous opponent, while still generating attractive match-ups. For computing the power rankings and strengths of the teams in Round 6 and up, the games in the playoff bracket are also taken into account. This is a somewhat delicate choice, because the teams in the brackets were playing "for a win only", so they might have "saved their energy" once they realized that a game was lost/won. So these scores might not directly reflect the strengths of the involved teams. They were nevertheless included to get a more complete picture.

Interactive Charts

Winner Prediction

Out of 104 games played in this division, the final strength predicts the winner of 80 (76.9%) games correctly. Out of 91 games after round 1, the strengths computed from data before the game predicted the winner of 58 (63.7%) games correctly.

All Games Sorted by Upsets

Here is a list with all games played, sorted by their "surprise" value. The first line can be read as follows: The biggest suprise in this division was the round-2 game where Frühsport Köln beat Sexy Legs with a margin of +5, whereas their final strengths would have predicted a margin of -4.9, i.e. a 15-10 win for Sexy Legs instead.

Hovering over the team names displays their strength right after that game was played, their final strength and their final (Swiss) rank. The 10 biggest upsets are highlighted in orange.

If you played in one of these teams, I am very curious to hear whether this list corresponds well with the feeling of surprise you had while actually playing the game. Please drop me a line.
RoundTeam1Team2Scoremarginpred margin curUpset
18093:2 Frühsport Köln Sexy Legs 15 - 10 5 -4.9332 98.6685
18093:1 Cranberry Snack Gentle Petards 15 - 5 10 0.4535 91.1357
18093:7 Frühsport Köln Cheek2Cheek 3 - 15 -12 -2.9084 82.6572
18093:4 Frisbee Family Cranberry Snack 13 - 4 9 0.3020 75.6552
18093:3 Rebel Ultimate Mubidisk 15 - 10 5 -3.2917 68.7523
18093:5 Cheek2Cheek Gentle Petards 10 - 13 -3 5.1968 67.1875
18093:2 Romanian Mixed National Team Aye-Aye 15 - 1 14 6.2384 60.2424
18093:7 Akka Cranberry Snack 11 - 15 -4 2.4810 42.0034
18093:7 Quijotes+Dulcineas Rusty Bikes 15 - 6 9 2.5441 41.6786
18093:6 Furious Goats Quijotes+Dulcineas 9 - 15 -6 0.0971 37.1746
18093:6 Germany Mixed National Team Stockholm Syndromes 15 - 2 13 6.9439 36.6763
18093:1 Frühsport Köln Wombat Ultimate 14 - 10 4 -1.9173 35.0144
18093:8 Quijotes+Dulcineas Outernationals 9 - 12 -3 2.7577 33.1511
18093:2 Furious Goats Dutch Mixed National Team 15 - 8 7 1.3325 32.1206
18093:7 Gentle Petards Romanian Mixed National Team 15 - 4 11 5.3728 31.6654
18093:1 Germany Mixed National Team Mubidisk 9 - 11 -2 3.5736 31.0650
18093:5 Wombat Ultimate Frisbee Family 15 - 6 9 3.4502 30.8003
18093:6 XLR8RS Akka 10 - 15 -5 0.4245 29.4252
18093:2 Mubidisk Chuck Bronson 14 - 9 5 10.0891 25.8989
18093:3 Nuts & Bolts Gentle Petards 13 - 7 6 0.9491 25.5116
18093:1 Furious Goats Aye-Aye 15 - 0 15 20.0377 25.3784
18093:6 Rusty Bikes Outernationals 15 - 10 5 0.2136 22.9096
18093:7 Nuts & Bolts Aye-Aye 13 - 5 8 12.5603 20.7963
18093:6 Chuck Bronson Gentle Petards 11 - 5 6 1.6945 18.5373
18093:7 XLR8RS Jabba The Huck 15 - 4 11 6.7492 18.0693
18093:4 Sexy Legs Stockholm Syndromes 13 - 10 3 -1.1917 17.5703
18093:8 Wombat Ultimate Dutch Mixed National Team 8 - 15 -7 -2.8883 16.9061
18093:1 Quijotes+Dulcineas Sexy Legs 9 - 12 -3 1.1078 16.8740
18093:8 Rebel Ultimate Stockholm Syndromes 9 - 13 -4 0.0786 16.6350
18093:4 Quijotes+Dulcineas Israel Mixed National Team 7 - 12 -5 -0.9638 16.2909
18093:8 Furious Goats Cranberry Snack 15 - 3 12 7.9730 16.2167
18093:8 Russian Mixed National Team Germany Mixed National Team 8 - 15 -7 -3.0830 15.3429
18093:8 Mubidisk France Mixed National Team 15 - 13 2 -1.7568 14.1135
18093:8 Gentle Petards Frisbee Family 13 - 10 3 -0.7555 14.1038
18093:1 Nuts & Bolts Stockholm Syndromes 4 - 15 -11 -7.4642 12.5019
18093:8 Sexy Legs Rusty Bikes 13 - 15 -2 1.4363 11.8082
18093:1 Rusty Bikes XLR8RS 8 - 9 -1 2.4263 11.7395
18093:4 Romanian Mixed National Team Wombat Ultimate 2 - 15 -13 -9.5785 11.7067
18093:7 Israel Mixed National Team Chuck Bronson 15 - 4 11 7.5987 11.5688
18093:7 Wombat Ultimate Rebel Ultimate 11 - 12 -1 -4.2862 10.7991
18093:3 Sexy Legs Cranberry Snack 15 - 5 10 6.7681 10.4452
18093:1 Chuck Bronson Jabba The Huck 8 - 6 2 5.0847 9.5154
18093:5 XLR8RS Stockholm Syndromes 7 - 15 -8 -5.0543 8.6771
18093:4 Frühsport Köln XLR8RS 11 - 15 -4 -1.0706 8.5814
18093:8 Frühsport Köln Aye-Aye 15 - 4 11 13.8996 8.4077
18093:5 Israel Mixed National Team Furious Goats 8 - 10 -2 0.8667 8.2180
18093:7 Germany Mixed National Team France Mixed National Team 9 - 10 -1 1.8168 7.9344
18093:5 France Mixed National Team Germany Mixed National Team 13 - 12 1 -1.8168 7.9344
18093:3 Jabba The Huck Aye-Aye 15 - 4 11 8.2210 7.7228
18093:2 Israel Mixed National Team Outernationals 14 - 13 1 3.7215 7.4066
18093:5 Frühsport Köln Rusty Bikes 9 - 15 -6 -3.4969 6.2655
18093:5 Dutch Mixed National Team Outernationals 15 - 11 4 1.5223 6.1390
18093:4 Gentle Petards Aye-Aye 15 - 1 14 11.6112 5.7064
18093:4 France Mixed National Team Russian Mixed National Team 12 - 13 -1 1.2662 5.1357
18093:6 Nuts & Bolts Cheek2Cheek 12 - 14 -2 -4.2477 5.0522
18093:5 Russian Mixed National Team Rebel Ultimate 15 - 9 6 3.7823 4.9182
18093:2 Frisbee Family Nuts & Bolts 10 - 8 2 -0.1936 4.8119
18093:7 Frisbee Family Outernationals 8 - 15 -7 -4.8162 4.7690
18093:6 Cranberry Snack Romanian Mixed National Team 15 - 7 8 5.8263 4.7250
18093:2 XLR8RS Cheek2Cheek 11 - 15 -4 -1.8378 4.6751
18093:2 Jabba The Huck Rebel Ultimate 1 - 15 -14 -11.8821 4.4855
18093:4 Rebel Ultimate Outernationals 13 - 8 5 2.9202 4.3256
18093:4 Germany Mixed National Team Furious Goats 15 - 6 9 6.9307 4.2820
18093:8 Chuck Bronson Romanian Mixed National Team 15 - 10 5 7.0673 4.2737
18093:3 Outernationals Romanian Mixed National Team 15 - 6 9 10.9445 3.7811
18093:3 Stockholm Syndromes Israel Mixed National Team 12 - 11 1 -0.8799 3.5340
18093:2 France Mixed National Team Stockholm Syndromes 15 - 8 7 5.1271 3.5078
18093:4 Nuts & Bolts Rusty Bikes 11 - 14 -3 -4.8362 3.3716
18093:3 Akka Frisbee Family 15 - 11 4 2.1790 3.3160
18093:1 France Mixed National Team Frisbee Family 15 - 4 11 12.7849 3.1859
18093:5 Chuck Bronson Nuts & Bolts 11 - 12 -1 0.7454 3.0464
18093:6 Rebel Ultimate Mubidisk 10 - 15 -5 -3.2917 2.9183
18093:5 Akka Quijotes+Dulcineas 8 - 15 -7 -5.3949 2.5763
18093:6 Dutch Mixed National Team France Mixed National Team 7 - 15 -8 -6.4464 2.4137
18093:7 Russian Mixed National Team Mubidisk 11 - 12 -1 0.4906 2.2219
18093:4 Mubidisk Cheek2Cheek 15 - 7 8 6.5868 1.9971
18093:3 France Mixed National Team Frühsport Köln 15 - 5 10 11.2520 1.5675
18093:1 Rebel Ultimate Israel Mixed National Team 10 - 12 -2 -0.8013 1.4369
18093:2 Cranberry Snack Russian Mixed National Team 2 - 15 -13 -11.8207 1.3907
18093:3 Cheek2Cheek Quijotes+Dulcineas 13 - 15 -2 -3.1326 1.2828
18093:6 Sexy Legs Israel Mixed National Team 11 - 12 -1 -2.0716 1.1483
18093:2 Akka Gentle Petards 15 - 11 4 2.9345 1.1353
18093:5 Cranberry Snack Aye-Aye 15 - 4 11 12.0647 1.1336
18093:5 Jabba The Huck Romanian Mixed National Team 12 - 9 3 1.9826 1.0351
18093:6 Russian Mixed National Team Wombat Ultimate 15 - 6 9 8.0685 0.8677
18093:2 Quijotes+Dulcineas Wombat Ultimate 14 - 9 5 4.1237 0.7679
18093:3 Russian Mixed National Team Furious Goats 15 - 12 3 3.8477 0.7186
18093:3 Chuck Bronson XLR8RS 12 - 13 -1 -1.6645 0.4416
18093:6 Frisbee Family Aye-Aye 15 - 2 13 12.3667 0.4011
18093:1 Cheek2Cheek Outernationals 11 - 12 -1 -0.3749 0.3908
18093:8 XLR8RS Nuts & Bolts 15 - 12 3 2.4099 0.3482
18093:2 Rusty Bikes Germany Mixed National Team 6 - 15 -9 -9.5719 0.3271
18093:5 Sexy Legs Mubidisk 9 - 13 -4 -4.5620 0.3158
18093:4 Dutch Mixed National Team Jabba The Huck 15 - 4 11 10.4842 0.2660
18093:1 Dutch Mixed National Team Romanian Mixed National Team 15 - 3 12 12.4668 0.2179
18093:3 Wombat Ultimate Rusty Bikes 13 - 15 -2 -1.5796 0.1767
18093:1 Russian Mixed National Team Akka 15 - 6 9 9.3397 0.1154
18093:8 Akka Jabba The Huck 15 - 9 6 6.3247 0.1054
18093:6 Frühsport Köln Jabba The Huck 14 - 8 6 5.6786 0.1033
18093:7 Stockholm Syndromes Dutch Mixed National Team 11 - 10 1 1.3193 0.1020
18093:3 Germany Mixed National Team Dutch Mixed National Team 15 - 7 8 8.2632 0.0693
18093:4 Akka Chuck Bronson 14 - 13 1 1.2400 0.0576
18093:7 Sexy Legs Furious Goats 14 - 15 -1 -1.2049 0.0420
18093:8 Israel Mixed National Team Cheek2Cheek 15 - 11 4 4.0964 0.0093

Some Observations

  1. Looking at the strengths after Round 5, we notice that the 6 teams with the highest strengths were ranked in the top 6 places and hence advanced to the playoff brackets. However, the Dutch National team and Wombat Ultimate also made it into the top-8 brackets, even though their power-ranks (according to strength) were only 11th and 13th. According to this new ranking algorithm, Isreal Mixed and Furious Goats would have been on playoff rank 7 and 8.
  2. The average Swiss score of Wombat is a good example where Swiss scores have a weakness. Wombat lost their first three games with margins -4, -5 and -2 and ended up on rank 22 after round 3. In Round 4, they then smashed the Romanian National team with a margin of +13 to advance to rank 15 and have another rather big win with +8 against Frisbee Family. These two big wins made them end up on place 8 according to the Swiss points. Comparing to the power rankings, the round-4 blowout win against Romania would not have counted as much, but let them stay on the 18th rank. The following win in Round 5 against Frisbee Family would have made them advance to rank 13.
  3. A similar thing to note is the effect of the round-4 game of the Dutch National Team against Jabba the Huck, a big win for the Dutch with margin of +11. In the Swiss points, this gave them a big boost from Rank 17 after Round 3 to Rank 9 after Round 4. In the power ranking, such a big win against a rather weak team would have increased their strength only slightly, they would have even gone down by one rank from 14 to 15.
  4. Interestingly, the winner of the mixed division Mubidisk is only on 4th place according to strength. Both their semi-final win against Russia and the final win against France came as surprises, as they were predicted to lose according to the strength.
  5. Looking at the strength of Israel and Outernationals after Round 2 in which they played each other with an almost even score of +1, it is interesting to see that this result (together with all other game results) had the effect that both teams gained quite massively in strength, whereas their average Swiss points decreased slightly.
  6. Looking at the strength of the bottom three teams Jabba the Huck, Romania and Aye-Aye, one can note that this order was already clear after round 3 and there's still quite a gap between Romania and Aye-Aye. In fact, the opponents of Aye-Aye (with a strength of -17 or lower) had a hard time "living up" to their expectations of beating them high enough...
  7. Round 7 was the first round on Sunday morning at 9:00, some teams might have had a rough night which caused three of the round-7 games to end up in the top 10 of the surprise list. I am really curious to hear from the teams involved in these big-upset games whether they experienced it as a "surprise" as well.

Further Discussion

If you want to share your own observations or get involved in discussions about ranking teams and devising optimal ranking algorithms, please take a second to join this new Google Group.