Open Division at Windmill Windup 2012

Introduction to Power Rankings

Here are the charts representing the computed strengths of the teams in the open division of Windmill Windup 2012. You should probably read this post for an in-depth explanation of the data presented here.

In all charts, you can click on a series in the legend on the right to toggle its visibility. Clicking on points in the graph shows detailed information about that particular team and how it performed at this point. Hovering over a round displays a tooltip with all teams that are currently visible, their scores and respective ranking. Dragging inside the chart lets you zoom in to focus on fewer rounds.

Most crucial for the Swissdraw format at Windmill Windup 2012 is the ranking of the teams after round 5, after which the top 8 teams advance to a full playoff bracket whereas the rest of the teams continue with three more rounds of Swissdraw format. The reasoning behind this choice of format is that brackets provide the fairest way to establish a winner, whereas the rest of the teams play more "for fun" as they cannot win the tournament anymore. Therefore, continuing the Swissdraw ensures that they do not replay a previous opponent, while still generating attractive match-ups. For computing the power rankings and strengths of the teams in Round 6 and up, the games in the playoff bracket are also taken into account. This is a somewhat delicate choice, because the teams in the brackets were playing "for a win only", so they might have "saved their energy" once they realized that a game was lost/won. So these scores might not directly reflect the strengths of the involved teams. They were nevertheless included to get a more complete picture.

Interactive Charts

Winner Prediction

Out of 160 games played in this division, the final strength predicts the winner of 133 (83.1%) games correctly. Out of 140 games after round 1, the strengths computed from data before the game predicted the winner of 88 (62.9%) games correctly.

All Games Sorted by Upsets

Here is a list with all games played, sorted by their "surprise" value. The first line can be read as follows: The biggest surprise in this division was the round-7 game where Gummibärchen lost to Denmark Juniors with a margin of -14, whereas their final strengths would have predicted a loss with margin of -3.8 only

Hovering over the team names displays their strength right after that game was played, their final strength and their final (Swiss) rank. The 10 biggest upsets are highlighted in orange.

If you played in one of these teams, I am very curious to hear whether this list corresponds well with the feeling of surprise you had while actually playing the game. Please drop me a line.

RoundTeam1Team2Scoremarginpred margin curUpset
18091:7 Gummibärchen Denmark Juniors 1 - 15 -14 -3.8413 103.1992
18091:8 Oranje Fire of London 15 - 2 13 3.2196 95.6562
18091:7 Friselis Gentle Open 4 - 15 -11 -1.9877 81.2216
18091:2 PUF UFO 15 - 10 5 -3.5136 72.4814
18091:2 LuckyGrass TheBigEz 15 - 8 7 -1.4188 70.8762
18091:1 Friselis Crazy Dogs 15 - 8 7 -0.8601 61.7812
18091:2 Diabolic Heaven Deine Mudder Bremen 15 - 7 8 0.1593 61.4766
18091:8 Deine Mudder Bremen France Master National Team 15 - 7 8 0.1773 61.1946
18091:8 Frizzly Bears Frank N 7 - 15 -8 -0.2282 60.4009
18091:8 Hardfisch Crazy Dogs 10 - 15 -5 2.2980 53.2608
18091:6 PUF Patlamis Turkish National Team 12 - 14 -2 5.1882 51.6702
18091:8 Sun Wizards 15 - 5 10 2.9605 49.5546
18091:7 Diabolic Heaven Crazy Dogs 4 - 15 -11 -4.0555 48.2261
18091:5 Iznogood Friselis 4 - 15 -11 -4.4875 42.4127
18091:2 Fire of London Gentle Open 15 - 6 9 2.4938 42.3306
18091:5 Mor ho! Fire of London 3 - 15 -12 -5.5970 40.9984
18091:7 Freespeed Silence 15 - 3 12 5.6533 40.2806
18091:6 Deine Mudder Bremen Catalyst 15 - 5 10 4.0633 35.2444
18091:5 Crazy Dogs Frizzly Bears 10 - 15 -5 0.8859 34.6438
18091:1 Mooncatchers Deine Mudder Bremen 15 - 6 9 3.2102 33.5218
18091:6 Frank N Iznogood 14 - 15 -1 4.6899 32.3750
18091:8 Mor ho! KFK (Copenhagen Frisbee Club) 9 - 15 -6 -0.3881 31.4934
18091:3 Catalyst UFO 15 - 13 2 -2.9607 24.6085
18091:1 Freespeed UFO 15 - 3 12 16.8444 23.4682
18091:7 Wizards Iznogood 15 - 11 4 -0.7116 22.1992
18091:3 Gummibärchen Oranje 7 - 15 -8 -12.7108 22.1916
18091:3 Cosmo KFK (Copenhagen Frisbee Club) 15 - 13 2 -2.6982 22.0731
18091:5 Gentle Open Deine Mudder Bremen 15 - 5 10 5.3424 21.6932
18091:3 Flying Bisc Friselis 15 - 5 10 5.4450 20.7480
18091:6 Gentle Open M.U.C. 7 - 15 -8 -3.5247 20.0283
18091:6 Mor ho! France Master National Team 12 - 14 -2 2.4165 19.5055
18091:4 Broc Ultimate UFO 10 - 15 -5 -0.7134 18.3749
18091:6 Cosmo Denmark Juniors 15 - 13 2 -2.2572 18.1238
18091:7 LuckyGrass France Master National Team 11 - 12 -1 3.2394 17.9725
18091:2 7 Schwaben Oranje 15 - 11 4 -0.2309 17.9005
18091:6 Friselis Broc Ultimate 12 - 11 1 5.1707 17.3947
18091:3 Mor ho! Gentle Open 15 - 14 1 -3.1032 16.8363
18091:5 Mooncatchers Diabolic Heaven 11 - 12 -1 3.0509 16.4098
18091:1 Catchup Graz UL Ninjas 15 - 5 10 14.0306 16.2457
18091:7 Broc Ultimate Patlamis Turkish National Team 15 - 3 12 7.9884 16.0929
18091:4 Fire of London 7 Schwaben 8 - 15 -7 -2.9887 16.0905
18091:3 Crazy Dogs Rainbow Warriors 15 - 6 9 4.9913 16.0697
18091:5 Rebel Ultimate Gummibärchen 14 - 15 -1 2.9831 15.8651
18091:6 Silence Oranje 15 - 12 3 -0.9673 15.7395
18091:3 UL Ninjas PUF 13 - 12 1 -2.9469 15.5780
18091:4 Mor ho! Sun 15 - 10 5 1.1231 15.0304
18091:1 Gentle Open Diabolic Heaven 15 - 6 9 5.1831 14.5687
18091:1 Oranje Mor ho! 12 - 7 5 8.8166 14.5664
18091:4 Rainbow Warriors Catalyst 15 - 8 7 3.2868 13.7879
18091:5 UL Ninjas UFO 5 - 15 -10 -6.4605 12.5281
18091:4 Oranje Hardfisch 15 - 7 8 4.5430 11.9508
18091:2 Friselis Germany U20 12 - 14 -2 -5.3705 11.3603
18091:1 CUSB La Fotta Rainbow Warriors 15 - 5 10 13.3154 10.9919
18091:7 Germany U20 Hardfisch 11 - 12 -1 2.2124 10.3195
18091:6 TheBigEz KFK (Copenhagen Frisbee Club) 13 - 8 5 1.8536 9.8998
18091:1 France Open National Team Catalyst 15 - 3 12 15.0597 9.3618
18091:6 Freespeed Flying Bisc 15 - 5 10 6.9421 9.3508
18091:2 Frank N Hardfisch 8 - 14 -6 -2.9557 9.2678
18091:4 Crazy Dogs Mooncatchers 10 - 12 -2 1.0046 9.0276
18091:2 Flying Bisc Freespeed 10 - 14 -4 -6.9421 8.6560
18091:8 Freespeed CUSB La Fotta 15 - 9 6 3.2029 7.8238
18091:5 Freespeed France Open National Team 13 - 11 2 4.7454 7.5372
18091:7 Flying Bisc Oranje 10 - 15 -5 -2.2561 7.5290
18091:1 Frizzly Bears LuckyGrass 12 - 9 3 0.2668 7.4704
18091:3 France Master National Team Sun 11 - 15 -4 -1.2934 7.3257
18091:5 Cosmo Rainbow Warriors 12 - 14 -2 0.7056 7.3203
18091:6 Hardfisch Mooncatchers 15 - 9 6 3.3026 7.2760
18091:7 Cosmo Mor ho! 9 - 14 -5 -2.3101 7.2356
18091:2 Rainbow Warriors Tsunami Vintage 15 - 9 6 8.6353 6.9448
18091:3 Germany U20 Frizzly Bears 15 - 7 8 5.3963 6.7793
18091:5 Broc Ultimate Tsunami Vintage 11 - 6 5 7.5958 6.7382
18091:8 Iznogood UL Ninjas 15 - 6 9 6.4303 6.6034
18091:8 Cosmo PUF 15 - 13 2 4.5453 6.4786
18091:4 France Open National Team CUSB La Fotta 12 - 11 1 -1.5425 6.4643
18091:3 France Open National Team Catchup Graz 14 - 12 2 4.5289 6.3953
18091:5 LuckyGrass Frank N 11 - 14 -3 -0.4950 6.2750
18091:7 UL Ninjas Catalyst 9 - 15 -6 -3.4998 6.2510
18091:1 M.U.C. PUF 15 - 4 11 13.4833 6.1668
18091:4 PUF Deine Mudder Bremen 8 - 15 -7 -4.6162 5.6825
18091:1 Flying Bisc Wizards 15 - 2 13 10.6441 5.5503
18091:2 M.U.C. CUSB La Fotta 9 - 15 -6 -3.6718 5.4205
18091:3 Hardfisch 7 Schwaben 13 - 15 -2 -4.3121 5.3458
18091:6 7 Schwaben CUSB La Fotta 10 - 14 -4 -1.7140 5.2258
18091:5 CUSB La Fotta 7 Schwaben 15 - 11 4 1.7140 5.2258
18091:4 Rebel Ultimate LuckyGrass 11 - 15 -4 -1.7340 5.1348
18091:5 Catalyst Patlamis Turkish National Team 15 - 7 8 5.7411 5.1026
18091:1 Gummibärchen Tsunami Vintage 14 - 4 10 7.7568 5.0319
18091:5 PUF Wizards 10 - 15 -5 -2.7718 4.9649
18091:7 PUF Tsunami Vintage 15 - 8 7 4.7956 4.8594
18091:1 Rebel Ultimate Hardfisch 7 - 10 -3 -5.1847 4.7729
18091:2 Mooncatchers Silence 6 - 15 -9 -6.8783 4.5016
18091:7 Fire of London 7 Schwaben 14 - 15 -1 -2.9887 3.9549
18091:8 Flying Bisc 7 Schwaben 10 - 14 -4 -2.0252 3.8998
18091:2 Mor ho! Broc Ultimate 15 - 9 6 4.0552 3.7822
18091:8 Denmark Juniors Rebel Ultimate 12 - 13 -1 0.8582 3.4529
18091:6 Frizzly Bears Diabolic Heaven 15 - 10 5 3.1696 3.3504
18091:2 Catalyst Wizards 10 - 14 -4 -2.2189 3.1723
18091:4 Silence M.U.C. 10 - 7 3 1.2214 3.1634
18091:6 Sun Gummibärchen 13 - 12 1 2.7711 3.1368
18091:2 UL Ninjas Patlamis Turkish National Team 15 - 11 4 2.2413 3.0930
18091:8 TheBigEz Mooncatchers 13 - 10 3 1.2707 2.9905
18091:5 Hardfisch Denmark Juniors 15 - 9 6 4.3265 2.8006
18091:5 Sun TheBigEz 10 - 15 -5 -3.3648 2.6739
18091:5 Catchup Graz Silence 11 - 13 -2 -3.6210 2.6276
18091:8 Germany U20 Gentle Open 14 - 9 5 3.3828 2.6153
18091:2 Cosmo Rebel Ultimate 11 - 14 -3 -1.3990 2.5632
18091:8 M.U.C. Catchup Graz 13 - 9 4 2.3996 2.5613
18091:7 Frank N Deine Mudder Bremen 14 - 12 2 3.5571 2.4246
18091:4 Gummibärchen France Master National Team 12 - 15 -3 -1.4777 2.3174
18091:7 KFK (Copenhagen Frisbee Club) Sun 15 - 12 3 1.5112 2.2165
18091:7 France Open National Team CUSB La Fotta 10 - 13 -3 -1.5425 2.1243
18091:4 Patlamis Turkish National Team Tsunami Vintage 8 - 7 1 -0.3926 1.9393
18091:1 France Master National Team Patlamis Turkish National Team 15 - 4 11 9.6271 1.8849
18091:8 Catalyst Tsunami Vintage 15 - 11 4 5.3485 1.8185
18091:2 Crazy Dogs Iznogood 15 - 11 4 5.3476 1.8160
18091:1 7 Schwaben TheBigEz 15 - 10 5 6.3440 1.8063
18091:4 Catchup Graz Flying Bisc 12 - 13 -1 -2.3322 1.7748
18091:6 Rainbow Warriors UFO 13 - 14 -1 0.3261 1.7585
18091:4 Iznogood Denmark Juniors 13 - 15 -2 -3.3191 1.7400
18091:4 Diabolic Heaven UL Ninjas 15 - 6 9 7.7224 1.6323
18091:3 M.U.C. LuckyGrass 15 - 8 7 5.8050 1.4280
18091:8 Gummibärchen Patlamis Turkish National Team 15 - 8 7 8.1494 1.3211
18091:5 Germany U20 M.U.C. 13 - 12 1 -0.1419 1.3039
18091:3 Rebel Ultimate Mooncatchers 12 - 15 -3 -1.8821 1.2497
18091:3 Denmark Juniors Wizards 13 - 10 3 4.0307 1.0623
18091:4 Freespeed Germany U20 15 - 9 6 7.0166 1.0335
18091:7 Catchup Graz TheBigEz 15 - 12 3 1.9866 1.0270
18091:8 Broc Ultimate Diabolic Heaven 12 - 13 -1 -1.9753 0.9512
18091:7 Rebel Ultimate Rainbow Warriors 15 - 12 3 2.1046 0.8017
18091:4 Friselis TheBigEz 13 - 15 -2 -1.1262 0.7635
18091:8 Friselis Rainbow Warriors 15 - 10 5 4.1312 0.7548
18091:6 France Open National Team Fire of London 11 - 7 4 3.1602 0.7053
18091:6 Rebel Ultimate Wizards 11 - 7 4 3.1725 0.6848
18091:2 France Open National Team France Master National Team 15 - 3 12 11.1737 0.6828
18091:2 Frizzly Bears Sun 15 - 12 3 2.2128 0.6197
18091:4 Frank N Gentle Open 13 - 14 -1 -1.7853 0.6167
18091:5 Flying Bisc Oranje 10 - 13 -3 -2.2561 0.5534
18091:6 Catchup Graz Germany U20 10 - 13 -3 -2.2577 0.5510
18091:3 Broc Ultimate TheBigEz 8 - 15 -7 -6.2969 0.4943
18091:7 Mooncatchers UFO 15 - 10 5 4.3128 0.4722
18091:3 Silence Freespeed 10 - 15 -5 -5.6533 0.4268
18091:3 Tsunami Vintage Deine Mudder Bremen 5 - 15 -10 -9.4118 0.3460
18091:2 Denmark Juniors KFK (Copenhagen Frisbee Club) 11 - 12 -1 -0.4410 0.3125
18091:1 Germany U20 Denmark Juniors 15 - 9 6 6.5389 0.2904
18091:4 KFK (Copenhagen Frisbee Club) Wizards 15 - 11 4 4.4717 0.2225
18091:7 M.U.C. Frizzly Bears 15 - 9 6 5.5382 0.2133
18091:1 Silence KFK (Copenhagen Frisbee Club) 15 - 8 7 7.4612 0.2127
18091:4 Frizzly Bears Cosmo 15 - 12 3 3.3998 0.1598
18091:3 Frank N Diabolic Heaven 15 - 12 3 3.3978 0.1582
18091:1 Broc Ultimate Frank N 9 - 14 -5 -5.3731 0.1392
18091:3 Iznogood Patlamis Turkish National Team 15 - 6 9 8.6716 0.1078
18091:3 Fire of London CUSB La Fotta 10 - 15 -5 -4.7027 0.0884
18091:5 France Master National Team KFK (Copenhagen Frisbee Club) 8 - 11 -3 -2.8046 0.0382
18091:1 Sun Cosmo 12 - 11 1 1.1870 0.0350
18091:8 LuckyGrass UFO 14 - 10 4 4.1647 0.0271
18091:6 Crazy Dogs LuckyGrass 13 - 12 1 1.1527 0.0233
18091:6 UL Ninjas Tsunami Vintage 11 - 9 2 1.8487 0.0229
18091:2 Gummibärchen Catchup Graz 7 - 15 -8 -8.1225 0.0150
18091:8 Silence France Open National Team 11 - 12 -1 -0.9079 0.0085
18091:1 Fire of London Iznogood 15 - 6 9 8.9690 0.0010

Some Observations

  1. In this division, the top-8 teams in terms of strength all made it into the top-8 playoff bracket, because they were the top-8 teams also in terms of Swiss points after Round 5. After Round 5, there was quite a gap between the Fire of London with a strength of 6.91 in rank 8 and Germany U20 with a strength of 5.73 in rank 9.
  2. Fire of London made it into the top 8 by a big win in the 5th round against Mor ho! with a margin of +12 which lifted them from 11th to the 8th power rank.
  3. Freespeed was clearly the strongest team, reflected in strength from Round 3 on. They won all their games.
  4. The teams on power ranks 13 to 35 are very similar in strength and hard to separate. Some slight changes in the power ranking occurred over the last three rounds. As long as those teams play each other, they should be guaranteed close and fun opponents.
  5. Teams that ended up higher in Swiss rank than in power rank: most extreme was Deine Mudder Bremen (17th Swiss, 27th power), less extreme: Crazy Dogs (11th Swiss, 15th power), Frank N (12th Swiss, 16th power), Rebel Ultimate (20th Swiss, 24th power), Sun (21th Swiss, 25th power). On the other hand, here are some teams that ended up higher in power rank than in Swiss rank: Friselis (17th power, 24th Swiss), Frizzly Bears (18th power, 25th Swiss), Mor Ho! (22th power, 26th Swiss), Rainbow Worriers (30th power, 34th Swiss).
  6. Due to a game result that was wrongly entered into the system in the first place (but later corrected, sorry again for the trouble!), Friselis ended up as a team with some pretty extreme margins (-10, +11, -11) in some of their games. In the Swiss ranking, this results in enormous ups and downs. The effects are less extreme in the power rankings.
  7. In the open division, there was only a single game to play on Sunday, so some teams might have been rather wasted that day (e.g. Fire of London), resulting in some unrepresentative score (15-2 loss to Oranje) and three more round-8 games ending up in the top 10 of the surprise list. I am really curious to hear from the teams involved in these big-upset games whether they experienced it as a "surprise" as well.
  8. the fight for the wooden spoon was a close race between Tsunami Vintage and Turkey. Next-worse was clearly UL Ninjas. The Wizards were punished for they big loss in the last game in terms of Swiss points, ending up on 37th Swiss place, whereas according to strength, they rank clearly above PUF and Catalyst on Rank 35.

Further Discussion

If you want to share your own observations or get involved in discussions about ranking teams and devising optimal ranking algorithms, please take a second to join this new Google Group.