Wisconsin Swiss 2011

Introduction to Power Rankings

Here are the charts representing the computed strengths of the teams at Wisconsin Swiss 2011. You should probably read this post for an in-depth explanation of the data presented here. In all charts, you can click on a series in the legend on the right to toggle its visibility. Clicking on points in the graph shows detailed information about that particular team and how it performed at this point. Hovering over a round displays a tooltip with all teams that are currently visible, their scores and respective ranking. Dragging inside the chart lets you zoom in to focus on fewer rounds. Most crucial for the Swissdraw format at this tournament is the ranking of the teams after round 5, after which the teams in ranks 1-8, 9-16, 17-24, 25-32 are going to separate playoff brackets. For computing the power rankings and strengths of the teams in Round 6 and up, the games in the playoff bracket are also taken into account. This is a somewhat delicate choice, because the teams in the brackets were playing "for a win only", so they might have "saved their energy" once they realized that a game was lost/won. So these scores might not directly reflect the strengths of the involved teams. They were nevertheless included to get a more complete picture.

Interactive Charts

Winner Prediction

Out of 117 games played in this division, the final strength predicts the winner of 96 (82.1%) games correctly. Out of 101 games after round 1, the strengths computed from data before the game predicted the winner of 71 (70.3%) games correctly.

All Games Sorted by Upsets

Here is a list with all games played, sorted by their "surprise" value. The first line can be read as follows: The biggest surprise at this tournament was the round-3 game where Cheeseheads lost to Curds with a margin of -1, whereas their final strengths would have predicted a win with margin of +8

Hovering over the team names displays their strength right after that game was played, their final strength and their final (Swiss) rank. The 10 biggest upsets are highlighted in orange.

If you played in one of these teams, I am very curious to hear whether this list corresponds well with the feeling of surprise you had while actually playing the game. Please drop me a line.
RoundTeam1Team2Scoremarginpred margin curUpset
13476:3 Cheeseheads Curds 11 - 12 -1 7.9886 80.7949
13476:1 Macon, MO Whoopee Lake Country Ultimate 13 - 1 12 19.4737 55.8562
13476:2 Free Ride Curds 13 - 2 11 3.8447 51.1983
13476:7 Des Moines Hornets Cheeseheads 8 - 13 -5 1.8096 46.3707
13476:5 Drag'n Thrust Over 9 - 13 -4 2.4367 41.4311
13476:5 Fatal Attraction Gambit 4 - 13 -9 -2.8987 37.2259
13476:6 Haul Gambit 13 - 5 8 1.9366 36.7648
13476:1 Skyway Madtown Boozehounds 9 - 13 -4 1.5244 30.5190
13476:4 Fatal Attraction Stud Muffin 13 - 10 3 -2.0751 25.7566
13476:5 Free Ride Freak Style 13 - 9 4 -0.7489 22.5521
13476:1 Beast Disc-Go 9 - 13 -4 0.6846 21.9455
13476:2 Mad Udderburn Tron Paul and the Gold Standard 8 - 13 -5 -0.5407 19.8854
13476:6 Freak Style Curds 13 - 4 9 4.5936 19.4164
13476:7 Beast Kamikaze Snow Leopards 13 - 6 7 2.6970 18.5158
13476:4 Macon, MO Whoopee Over 8 - 11 -3 1.2161 17.7755
13476:2 Des Moines Hornets Mixed Reaction 13 - 4 9 4.8260 17.4223
13476:6 I Can't Believe It's Not Udder Pound 2 - 13 -11 -6.8495 17.2267
13476:4 Kamikaze Snow Leopards Curds 13 - 5 8 3.8634 17.1115
13476:4 Drag'n Thrust Haul 13 - 4 9 4.8944 16.8560
13476:6 Des Moines Hornets Kamikaze Snow Leopards 13 - 3 10 5.9348 16.5259
13476:1 Forbiddin' Love MUTT 13 - 4 9 13.0031 16.0248
13476:1 Mad Udderburn Freak Style 13 - 4 9 5.1101 15.1313
13476:1 Implants Curds 13 - 5 8 11.7512 14.0715
13476:7 Freak Style Madtown Boozehounds 11 - 8 3 -0.7126 13.7834
13476:6 Free Ride Stud Muffin 2 - 13 -11 -7.3857 13.0632
13476:1 Over Kamikaze Snow Leopards 13 - 4 9 12.5849 12.8515
13476:5 Beast I Can't Believe It's Not Udder 11 - 13 -2 1.5277 12.4447
13476:4 Muevela Lake Country Ultimate 13 - 6 7 3.4792 12.3960
13476:2 Skyway Lake Country Ultimate 13 - 1 12 8.6399 11.2903
13476:7 Mad Udderburn AirSparks 12 - 9 3 -0.3404 11.1583
13476:8 Minnesota Star Power Implants 10 - 13 -3 0.2867 10.8024
13476:7 Free Ride Ibex 5 - 13 -8 -4.7681 10.4452
13476:7 Macon, MO Whoopee Drag'n Thrust 13 - 11 2 -1.2206 10.3723
13476:4 Mad Udderburn Disc-Go 13 - 6 7 3.8279 10.0622
13476:4 Implants Forbiddin' Love 11 - 12 -1 2.0960 9.5852
13476:4 Beast Plowed 12 - 6 6 2.9326 9.4089
13476:5 Ibex Muevela 13 - 3 10 6.9429 9.3459
13476:5 Mad Udderburn Forbiddin' Love 10 - 13 -3 0.0485 9.2934
13476:7 Stud Muffin Tron Paul and the Gold Standard 13 - 9 4 0.9860 9.0842
13476:6 Macon, MO Whoopee Forbiddin' Love 13 - 2 11 8.0092 8.9449
13476:4 Minnesota Star Power Gambit 10 - 13 -3 -0.0161 8.9037
13476:3 Ibex NOISE 7 - 13 -6 -3.0257 8.8465
13476:3 Free Ride Disc-Go 8 - 13 -5 -2.0311 8.8144
13476:6 Implants NOISE 13 - 10 3 0.1127 8.3365
13476:3 Kamikaze Snow Leopards MUTT 13 - 3 10 7.2113 7.7768
13476:5 Des Moines Hornets Minnesota Star Power 8 - 13 -5 -2.2397 7.6193
13476:2 Drag'n Thrust NOISE 13 - 3 10 7.2465 7.5818
13476:7 Curds MUTT 13 - 7 6 3.3479 7.0336
13476:4 Tron Paul and the Gold Standard NOISE 9 - 13 -4 -1.3941 6.7907
13476:5 Lake Country Ultimate MUTT 0 - 1 -1 1.5386 6.4445
13476:7 Lake Country Ultimate Muevela 0 - 1 -1 -3.4792 6.1464
13476:7 Implants Fatal Attraction 13 - 8 5 2.5959 5.7797
13476:2 Macon, MO Whoopee Gambit 13 - 5 8 5.6104 5.7102
13476:4 Cheeseheads MUTT 13 - 4 9 11.3365 5.4592
13476:1 Haul Muevela 13 - 3 10 12.3207 5.3856
13476:4 I Can't Believe It's Not Udder Madtown Boozehounds 11 - 9 2 -0.2735 5.1688
13476:3 AirSparks Madtown Boozehounds 13 - 6 7 4.7379 5.1171
13476:1 Plowed Free Ride 13 - 11 2 -0.2169 4.9146
13476:3 Over Tron Paul and the Gold Standard 13 - 9 4 6.2039 4.8572
13476:2 Implants Plowed 13 - 7 6 8.1234 4.5088
13476:2 Beast MUTT 13 - 1 12 9.9083 4.3752
13476:7 Mixed Reaction I Can't Believe It's Not Udder 14 - 12 2 -0.0605 4.2457
13476:5 Skyway Disc-Go 13 - 10 3 0.9548 4.1828
13476:1 Gambit AirSparks 13 - 9 4 2.0099 3.9605
13476:1 Drag'n Thrust Cheeseheads 13 - 4 9 10.8964 3.5963
13476:5 Kamikaze Snow Leopards Mixed Reaction 10 - 13 -3 -1.1088 3.5766
13476:7 Minnesota Star Power Pound 13 - 11 2 0.1557 3.4014
13476:2 Minnesota Star Power Pound 12 - 10 2 0.1557 3.4014
13476:2 Fatal Attraction Cheeseheads 13 - 10 3 1.1667 3.3610
13476:6 Mad Udderburn Drag'n Thrust 2 - 13 -11 -9.1813 3.3077
13476:8 Over Macon, MO Whoopee 10 - 13 -3 -1.2161 3.1823
13476:3 Drag'n Thrust Forbiddin' Love 13 - 2 11 9.2298 3.1336
13476:4 Skyway Freak Style 13 - 9 4 2.2370 3.1082
13476:2 Haul Madtown Boozehounds 13 - 6 7 8.6844 2.8372
13476:6 Skyway Fatal Attraction 9 - 13 -4 -2.3247 2.8066
13476:5 Cheeseheads Plowed 13 - 7 6 4.3608 2.6870
13476:6 Cheeseheads Beast 13 - 10 3 1.4282 2.4706
13476:5 Implants Stud Muffin 13 - 11 2 0.5208 2.1880
13476:7 Over Haul 13 - 12 1 2.4577 2.1249
13476:2 I Can't Believe It's Not Udder Freak Style 11 - 12 -1 0.4391 2.0710
13476:6 Over AirSparks 13 - 8 5 6.4042 1.9718
13476:7 Gambit Forbiddin' Love 15 - 14 1 2.3988 1.9566
13476:1 Ibex Stud Muffin 9 - 13 -4 -2.6176 1.9110
13476:6 Tron Paul and the Gold Standard Ibex 13 - 10 3 1.6316 1.8725
13476:6 MUTT Madtown Boozehounds 3 - 13 -10 -8.6541 1.8114
13476:8 Stud Muffin Cheeseheads 13 - 11 2 3.2418 1.5421
13476:3 Skyway Gambit 8 - 12 -4 -5.2234 1.4967
13476:2 Forbiddin' Love Disc-Go 13 - 8 5 3.7794 1.4899
13476:3 Mixed Reaction Lake Country Ultimate 13 - 5 8 6.7815 1.4847
13476:1 Tron Paul and the Gold Standard I Can't Believe It's Not Udder 13 - 9 4 5.2117 1.4682
13476:5 AirSparks Tron Paul and the Gold Standard 14 - 13 1 -0.2003 1.4407
13476:7 NOISE Skyway 13 - 7 6 4.8079 1.4211
13476:8 Drag'n Thrust Haul 13 - 7 6 4.8944 1.2224
13476:3 Macon, MO Whoopee Implants 13 - 6 7 5.9132 1.1811
13476:3 Mad Udderburn Plowed 13 - 8 5 6.0759 1.1576
13476:3 Haul Minnesota Star Power 12 - 9 3 1.9527 1.0968
13476:6 Plowed Muevela 13 - 12 1 1.9579 0.9176
13476:1 Minnesota Star Power Mixed Reaction 13 - 5 8 7.0657 0.8729
13476:4 Des Moines Hornets Ibex 11 - 9 2 1.1854 0.6636
13476:6 Disc-Go Lake Country Ultimate 13 - 6 7 7.6851 0.4694
13476:5 Haul NOISE 13 - 10 3 2.3521 0.4198
13476:3 I Can't Believe It's Not Udder Muevela 13 - 9 4 3.3628 0.4060
13476:2 AirSparks Muevela 13 - 4 9 8.3742 0.3916
13476:3 Fatal Attraction Freak Style 13 - 9 4 4.5617 0.3155
13476:1 NOISE Fatal Attraction 13 - 11 2 2.4832 0.2335
13476:3 Des Moines Hornets Stud Muffin 13 - 14 -1 -1.4322 0.1868
13476:3 Beast Pound 8 - 13 -5 -5.3218 0.1036
13476:5 Madtown Boozehounds Curds 13 - 8 5 5.3062 0.0938
13476:8 Disc-Go Freak Style 15 - 14 1 1.2822 0.0796
13476:2 Ibex Kamikaze Snow Leopards 13 - 8 5 4.7494 0.0628
13476:7 Disc-Go Plowed 13 - 11 2 2.2480 0.0615
13476:2 Over Stud Muffin 13 - 8 5 5.2179 0.0475
13476:5 Macon, MO Whoopee Pound 13 - 7 6 5.7822 0.0474
13476:4 AirSparks Pound 10 - 12 -2 -1.8381 0.0262
13476:4 Free Ride Mixed Reaction 12 - 13 -1 -1.1275 0.0163
13476:1 Pound Des Moines Hornets 13 - 11 2 2.0840 0.0071
13476:6 Minnesota Star Power Mixed Reaction 13 - 6 7 7.0657 0.0043

Some Observations

  1. Looking at the strength after round 5, only the top 5 of the top playoff bracket actually belonged there. The other three teams (Mad Udderburn, power rank: 14th, Forbidden Love, 13th and AirSparks, 10th) should have in the next bracket. Instead, Minnessota Star Power, NOISE and Pound should have been in the top bracket.
  2. The effects here are a clear sign of the mis-ranking (in terms of strength) when first ordering by the number of wins. A team like Forbiddin Love was lucky to get a record of 4-1, but is clearly weaker than Minnessota Star Power (who had a record of 3-2).
  3. Another extreme examples are "Tron Paul and the Gold Standard" as well as "Stud Muffins" who should have been at the top end of the 2nd bracket instead of in the third.
  4. Unlucky seeding caused a first-round game between the strongest and the weakest team. Even though Macon won against Lake Country with a margin of +12, they should have won with the impossible margin of +19 for not causing an "upset".

Further Discussion

If you want to share your own observations or get involved in discussions about ranking teams and devising optimal ranking algorithms, please take a second to join this new Google Group.