Wisconsin Swiss 2012

Introduction to Power Rankings

Here are the charts representing the computed strengths of the teams at Wisconsin Swiss 2012. You should probably read this post for an in-depth explanation of the data presented here. In all charts, you can click on a series in the legend on the right to toggle its visibility. Clicking on points in the graph shows detailed information about that particular team and how it performed at this point. Hovering over a round displays a tooltip with all teams that are currently visible, their scores and respective ranking. Dragging inside the chart lets you zoom in to focus on fewer rounds. Most crucial for the Swissdraw format at this tournament is the ranking of the teams after round 5, after which the teams in ranks 1-8, 9-16, 17-24, 25-32 are going to separate playoff brackets. For computing the power rankings and strengths of the teams in Round 6 and up, the games in the playoff bracket are also taken into account. This is a somewhat delicate choice, because the teams in the brackets were playing "for a win only", so they might have "saved their energy" once they realized that a game was lost/won. So these scores might not directly reflect the strengths of the involved teams. They were nevertheless included to get a more complete picture.

Interactive Charts

Winner Prediction

Out of 114 games played in this division, the final strength predicts the winner of 105 (92.1%) games correctly. Out of 98 games after round 1, the strengths computed from data before the game predicted the winner of 72 (73.5%) games correctly.

All Games Sorted by Upsets

Here is a list with all games played, sorted by their "surprise" value. The first line can be read as follows: The biggest surprise in this division was the round-7 game where Gambit lost to Mad Udderburn with a margin of -6, whereas their final strengths would have predicted a win with margin of +1.

Hovering over the team names displays their strength right after that game was played, their final strength and their final (Swiss) rank. The 10 biggest upsets are highlighted in orange.

If you played in one of these teams, I am very curious to hear whether this list corresponds well with the feeling of surprise you had while actually playing the game. Please drop me a line.
RoundTeam1Team2Scoremarginpred margin curUpset
18105:7 Gambit Mad Udderburn X 5 - 11 -6 1.4572 55.6098
18105:6 Risky Bidness Swerve 13 - 6 7 -0.1569 51.2212
18105:6 Mad Udderburn Y Plowed 3 - 13 -10 -3.3200 44.6224
18105:7 Sidecar! Stud Muffin 6 - 13 -7 -1.1558 34.1547
18105:5 Implants Sidecar! 9 - 13 -4 1.6887 32.3613
18105:7 Mixed Reaction Cheeseheads 5 - 13 -8 -2.3705 31.6913
18105:6 Stud Muffin Bird 5 - 13 -8 -2.5198 30.0326
18105:4 Skyway Plowed 13 - 9 4 -1.3275 28.3823
18105:3 Milwaukee's Beast Mad Udderburn Y 6 - 12 -6 -0.9571 25.4308
18105:7 Prion Minnesota Star Power 7 - 13 -6 -0.9949 25.0510
18105:1 Macon, MO Whoopee Mixed Reaction 13 - 6 7 11.9033 24.0424
18105:1 Gambit Cheeseheads 13 - 9 4 -0.8743 23.7588
18105:5 Milwaukee's Beast Freak Style 6 - 13 -7 -2.3918 21.2355
18105:7 Muevela Plowed 7 - 13 -6 -1.4152 21.0204
18105:2 Swerve Ruckus 12 - 5 7 2.4958 20.2878
18105:5 Drag'n Thrust Des Moines Hornets 13 - 2 11 6.4967 20.2797
18105:2 Cheeseheads Fatal Attraction 13 - 8 5 0.5734 19.5948
18105:4 Cheeseheads Mad Udderburn X 9 - 11 -2 2.3315 18.7619
18105:2 Skyway Gambit 5 - 11 -6 -1.6830 18.6365
18105:1 Bird Ruckus 13 - 2 11 15.3124 18.5968
18105:2 MUTT One More Pitcher 8 - 11 -3 1.0153 16.1226
18105:5 Bird Overhaul 7 - 13 -6 -2.1582 14.7594
18105:3 Mixed Reaction One More Pitcher 13 - 2 11 7.1865 14.5428
18105:5 Ruckus Salvage 2 13 - 5 8 4.2623 13.9704
18105:1 Milwaukee's Beast Madtown Boozehounds 13 - 5 8 4.2869 13.7871
18105:6 Ibex Mixed Reaction 13 - 7 6 2.4582 12.5443
18105:2 Macon, MO Whoopee Overhaul 12 - 6 6 2.5111 12.1724
18105:7 Freak Style Skyway 8 - 12 -4 -0.5578 11.8487
18105:4 Freak Style MUTT 13 - 11 2 5.4266 11.7416
18105:8 Milwaukee's Beast Risky Bidness 7 - 1 6 2.6031 11.5389
18105:3 Madtown Boozehounds Ruckus 13 - 9 4 0.6551 11.1884
18105:1 Mad Udderburn X Muevela 9 - 12 -3 0.3135 10.9793
18105:7 Ibex Des Moines Hornets 4 - 13 -9 -5.8275 10.0648
18105:8 Drag'n Thrust Macon, MO Whoopee 13 - 7 6 2.8791 9.7400
18105:7 Milwaukee's Beast One More Pitcher 13 - 6 7 4.0501 8.7019
18105:2 Bird Plowed 13 - 4 9 6.0933 8.4489
18105:8 Plowed Mad Udderburn X 13 - 9 4 1.1017 8.4001
18105:3 Skyway Prion 4 - 13 -9 -6.2677 7.4655
18105:4 Stud Muffin Mixed Reaction 11 - 9 2 4.7142 7.3669
18105:5 Mad Udderburn Y Gambit 11 - 12 -1 -3.6755 7.1583
18105:3 Mad Udderburn X Overhaul 1 - 13 -12 -9.3532 7.0056
18105:4 Risky Bidness Salvage 2 13 - 9 4 6.6012 6.7662
18105:7 Overhaul Macon, MO Whoopee 2 - 7 -5 -2.5111 6.1946
18105:6 Muevela Bonobo Handshake 13 - 4 9 6.6286 5.6235
18105:5 Plowed MUTT 13 - 8 5 7.3119 5.3449
18105:3 Drag'n Thrust Gambit 13 - 2 11 13.2862 5.2267
18105:5 Fatal Attraction Mad Udderburn X 12 - 8 4 1.7581 5.0261
18105:3 Ibex Freak Style 10 - 9 1 3.2028 4.8523
18105:5 Macon, MO Whoopee Minnesota Star Power 13 - 6 7 4.8275 4.7198
18105:1 Overhaul Implants 13 - 11 2 4.1451 4.6015
18105:4 Sidecar! Ibex 8 - 9 -1 1.1002 4.4108
18105:1 Minnesota Star Power Kamikaze Snow Leopards 13 - 9 4 6.0551 4.2234
18105:7 NOISE Implants 10 - 13 -3 -1.0039 3.9844
18105:4 Bird NOISE 11 - 10 1 2.9908 3.9633
18105:1 Drag'n Thrust Fatal Attraction 13 - 2 11 12.9853 3.9414
18105:5 Mixed Reaction Prion 5 - 13 -8 -6.0809 3.6829
18105:6 Cheeseheads Des Moines Hornets 9 - 13 -4 -5.9152 3.6680
18105:3 Implants Plowed 13 - 7 6 4.1064 3.5857
18105:3 Sidecar! Cheeseheads 12 - 9 3 1.1879 3.2837
18105:5 Kamikaze Snow Leopards Skyway 12 - 9 3 1.2075 3.2131
18105:6 Madtown Boozehounds One More Pitcher 13 - 15 -2 -0.2368 3.1089
18105:7 Mad Udderburn Y Bonobo Handshake 13 - 10 3 4.7238 2.9715
18105:1 Plowed Swerve 13 - 8 5 6.7233 2.9698
18105:7 Drag'n Thrust Bird 13 - 7 6 7.5484 2.3975
18105:2 Stud Muffin Risky Bidness 13 - 1 12 10.4537 2.3910
18105:5 Stud Muffin NOISE 13 - 11 2 0.4710 2.3378
18105:2 Mad Udderburn X Madtown Boozehounds 13 - 7 6 7.4623 2.1383
18105:3 Bonobo Handshake Salvage 2 12 - 8 4 5.4376 2.0667
18105:5 Ibex Muevela 13 - 9 4 2.7327 1.6060
18105:7 Fatal Attraction Kamikaze Snow Leopards 14 - 12 2 0.7764 1.4972
18105:3 Macon, MO Whoopee Muevela 13 - 2 11 12.1778 1.3872
18105:2 Ibex Des Moines Hornets 6 - 13 -7 -5.8275 1.3748
18105:4 Muevela Madtown Boozehounds 13 - 7 6 7.1488 1.3197
18105:4 One More Pitcher Ruckus 12 - 10 2 0.8919 1.2279
18105:4 Overhaul Gambit 13 - 4 9 7.8960 1.2188
18105:1 Mad Udderburn Y MUTT 12 - 7 5 3.9919 1.0163
18105:8 Implants Des Moines Hornets 9 - 13 -4 -3.0386 0.9243
18105:5 Cheeseheads Swerve 13 - 6 7 7.9531 0.9084
18105:2 Kamikaze Snow Leopards Bonobo Handshake 13 - 6 7 7.9238 0.8534
18105:6 Ruckus MUTT 10 - 11 -1 -1.9072 0.8230
18105:4 Drag'n Thrust Macon, MO Whoopee 10 - 8 2 2.8791 0.7728
18105:1 Skyway Salvage 2 13 - 0 13 12.1539 0.7159
18105:3 NOISE Minnesota Star Power 11 - 13 -2 -2.8326 0.6932
18105:6 Mad Udderburn X Skyway 11 - 10 1 0.2258 0.5994
18105:6 Kamikaze Snow Leopards Implants 8 - 13 -5 -4.2264 0.5985
18105:4 Minnesota Star Power Mad Udderburn Y 13 - 3 10 9.2551 0.5549
18105:4 Des Moines Hornets Kamikaze Snow Leopards 13 - 5 8 7.2650 0.5402
18105:2 Drag'n Thrust Prion 13 - 5 8 8.7015 0.4921
18105:6 Overhaul Prion 13 - 9 4 3.3113 0.4743
18105:1 NOISE One More Pitcher 13 - 1 12 11.4297 0.3252
18105:6 NOISE Fatal Attraction 13 - 10 3 2.4461 0.3068
18105:3 Fatal Attraction Risky Bidness 13 - 6 7 7.5366 0.2879
18105:2 Sidecar! Minnesota Star Power 8 - 11 -3 -3.5174 0.2677
18105:5 Bonobo Handshake Madtown Boozehounds 11 - 10 1 0.5202 0.2302
18105:5 One More Pitcher Risky Bidness 14 - 15 -1 -1.4470 0.1998
18105:1 Stud Muffin Des Moines Hornets 9 - 13 -4 -3.5715 0.1836
18105:2 NOISE Mad Udderburn Y 13 - 7 6 6.4225 0.1785
18105:1 Ibex Bonobo Handshake 13 - 4 9 9.3613 0.1305
18105:2 Mixed Reaction Salvage 2 13 - 1 12 12.3407 0.1161
18105:4 Swerve Bonobo Handshake 9 - 8 1 1.3205 0.1027
18105:1 Sidecar! Risky Bidness 13 - 4 9 9.2979 0.0887
18105:3 Stud Muffin Swerve 13 - 3 10 10.2968 0.0881
18105:6 Freak Style Gambit 9 - 11 -2 -2.2408 0.0580
18105:6 Drag'n Thrust Sidecar! 13 - 2 11 11.2240 0.0502
18105:6 Milwaukee's Beast Salvage 2 13 - 4 9 9.2043 0.0417
18105:3 Kamikaze Snow Leopards MUTT 13 - 6 7 7.1919 0.0368
18105:1 Prion Freak Style 13 - 6 7 6.8255 0.0305
18105:6 Minnesota Star Power Macon, MO Whoopee 8 - 13 -5 -4.8275 0.0298
18105:4 Implants Prion 11 - 12 -1 -0.8338 0.0276
18105:8 Bird Overhaul 11 - 13 -2 -2.1582 0.0250
18105:2 Milwaukee's Beast Muevela 9 - 12 -3 -2.8619 0.0191
18105:4 Milwaukee's Beast Fatal Attraction 6 - 11 -5 -4.9335 0.0044
18105:3 Bird Des Moines Hornets 9 - 10 -1 -1.0517 0.0027
18105:2 Implants Freak Style 13 - 7 6 5.9917 0.0001

Some Observations

  1. Looking at the strength after round 5, Des Moines Hornets should have made it into the top bracket instead of Sidecar! Des Moines is a typical example of a team getting punished for a big loss (2-13) against the top team in the critical round 5.
  2. Bonobo handshake should have been in the lowest bracket.
  3. Compared to the other tournament's I have analysed, there are no huge upsets here. The winner prediction percentage is high.

Further Discussion

If you want to share your own observations or get involved in discussions about ranking teams and devising optimal ranking algorithms, please take a second to join this new Google Group.